The Bitcoin Newsletter 37
APR 21, 2026
Welcome to the 37th Edition of The Bitcoin Newsletter
Technological shifts like the emergence of quantum computing are not isolated developmentsâthey are part of a broader transformation that is reshaping industries, economic structures, and the foundations of digital systems.
In this 37th edition, I examine how quantum computing interacts with Bitcoin, why common narratives around quantum risk are often misplaced, and how Bitcoinâs design is set to become increasingly relevant in a world defined by accelerating change.
Iâll be returning to the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas (April 27â29), where Iâll be speaking about my upcoming book Digital Real Estate, moderating a panel on âBitcoin-Backed Loans Meet Mortgagesâ, and joining the newsdesk.
The bigger update: the Digital Real Estate manuscript is being handed in at the end of the month. Pre-sale begins at the Bitcoin Conference, with a special launch offer.
Newsletter subscribers will be the first to hear about itâand will get access to a special pre-order discount before release.
Note:Â Some subscribers may still be billed despite the newsletter being free. If that applies to you, please reach out via DM and Iâll cancel your subscription.
Best regards,
Leon
DEEP DIVE
Bitcoin and Quantum Risk: What Actually Matters
Periods of uncertainty tend to reveal how systems actually work.
Quantum computing is often framed as a technology that could one day âbreak everything.â That description is exaggerated, but not entirely misplaced.
At a high level, quantum systems aim to process certain classes of problems far more efficiently than classical computers. That matters because much of the digital world, including Bitcoin, relies on cryptographic assumptions to secure information, identity, and ownership.
So the question is not whether quantum computing matters. It does. The real question is how it matters, when it matters, and what follows from it.
Theory is not the same as deployment
The first distinction is the most important: a theoretical possibility is not the same as a practical threat.
A fully functional, large-scale quantum computer capable of materially breaking the cryptography underpinning modern digital systems does not exist today.
The theoretical foundations for such attacks are well known. Turning theory into real-world capability, however, requires overcoming substantial physical and engineering constraints, including stability, error correction, and scale.
That does not mean the issue should be ignored. It means it should be understood properly.
Too often, the discussion jumps directly from âquantum computers may eventually become powerfulâ to âBitcoin will be broken.â
That skips the only part that actually matters: whether such systems can be built, scaled, and operated in practice at a level that changes real-world security assumptions.
As of today, that remains far from practical reality.
Bitcoin would not be uniquely affected
The second distinction is scope.
If quantum computing were to reach a point where it could materially compromise modern cryptography, Bitcoin would not be the only system exposed.
Similar underlying assumptions support banks, custodians, governments, military systems, internet infrastructure, identity frameworks, and much of the software stack the digital world depends on.
Bitcoin would not be the exception. It would be part of a much broader transition. This point matters because it changes how the risk should be framed.Â
Quantum computing is not a âBitcoin problem.â It is a potential digital infrastructure problem. Any serious breakthrough would force adaptation across the entire system, not just within one monetary network.
That does not make Bitcoin immune. It does, however, place the issue in context.
What actually matters
The relevant issue is not whether quantum risk exists in principle. It does.
The question is where it is most likely to matter first, how it would be expressed, and which systems are best positioned to respond.
In practice, risks do not materialize evenly. They appear first where incentives are strongest, defenses are weakest, and points of failure are most concentrated.
This is often the weakness of centralized systems: banks, custodial platforms, identity providers, and other structures that concentrate trust, control, and attack surfaces in a small number of places.
Bitcoin is different. Not because it is immune to the problem, but because it is open-source, decentralized, and adaptable. Its code is public.
Its assumptions are continuously scrutinized. Its incentives are transparent. And its users, developers, miners, businesses, and long-term holders all have a direct stake in maintaining the integrity of the system. That combination matters.
A system that can be reviewed openly and improved under pressure is fundamentally different from one that depends on opaque institutions, closed infrastructure, or centralized decision-making.
When threats evolve, the ability to adapt becomes as important as the original design.
Bitcoin is not static
Bitcoin is often discussed as if it were a fixed system. It is not. Bitcoin is an open-source protocol. Its monetary rules are durable, but the system itself evolves.
Technological conditions change. Security assumptions change. Attack surfaces change. That has always been true. Over time, every serious system is forced to respond. Bitcoin was built with that in mind.
Protocol upgrades can be introduced. Users can migrate funds to new address formats or new security standards as needed. None of this would be effortlessâbut it would not happen in isolation. If credible quantum threats were to emerge over longer time horizons, Bitcoin can adapt.
Importantly, this is not a neglected issue. It is already being discussed. The problem is known. Possible paths are being examined. Proposals exist. In that sense, the work has already begun.
That is what resilient systems do. They identify a possible failure mode early, then prepare long before it becomes acute.
The wrong mental model
A lot of the fear around quantum computing comes from applying the wrong frame to the problem.
The common assumption is that if a risk exists, the system must therefore be invalid. But that is not how serious systems are assessed.
The existence of risk is not the test. The test is how a system behaves under uncertainty, how quickly it can adapt, and whether the incentives to maintain it are strong enough to support meaningful change.
By that standard, Bitcoin holds up well.
If the mere existence of theoretical quantum risk were enough to dismiss Bitcoin, the same logic would force a rejection of nearly every digital system relied upon today: bank accounts, payment rails, secure communications, cloud infrastructure, and modern software more broadly.
At that point, the argument stops being about Bitcoin and becomes detached from reality. No system is risk-free. The distinction lies between those that can adapt and those that cannot.
Why first-principles thinking matters
Technological change is often accompanied by exaggerated narratives. That is not new. Every major shift creates both genuine challenges and layers of noise around them.
Quantum computing is no exception.
Some of the fear is rooted in real concerns. Some is amplified because it is useful to particular narratives, institutions, or commercial interests. That is precisely why the topic should be approached with first-principles thinking rather than reflexive panic.
From that perspective, the right question becomes: if fundamental assumptions change, which systems are structurally capable of adapting?
Bitcoin does not depend on a central operator to make the right decision. It does not rely on policy discretion. It does not require trust in a single institution.
Its rules are durable, its incentives are visible, and its architecture allows for coordinated change when that change becomes necessary.
That is not a weakness. It is one of its defining strengths: the ability to adapt to new conditions without compromising the core properties that make it valuable.
Final thoughts
Quantum computing is often presented as an imminent threat. In reality, it is better understood as a category of long-term uncertainty: the possibility that cryptographic assumptions evolve over time.
That possibility should be taken seriously, but not dramatized.
As the world stands today, it is not feasible to deploy quantum systems at the scale required to materially affect Bitcoin in practice, let alone in a sustained and economically meaningful way. For now, and for the foreseeable future, the issue remains theoretical rather than operational.
More importantly, if the threat were to become relevant over longer horizons, Bitcoin would not remain static. Work is already being done. Incentives to solve the problem are enormous, not only within Bitcoin, but across the entire digital economy.
Quantum computing, if it develops meaningfully, would not single out Bitcoin. It would force a wider cryptographic transition across the systems modern life depends on. In that environment, the relevant distinction will not be between systems with risk and systems without it. It will be between systems that can adapt and those that cannot.
Bitcoin is designed to adapt as conditions change. It does not avoid stressâit evolves through it. And that may be one of its most important features.
WORTH KNOWING
Podcast and publications
The Peter McCormack Show: The Collapse Has Already StartedÂ
A very worthwhile listen for anyone trying to understand the deeper mechanics behind debt, money, and why Bitcoin matters: Lyn Alden argues that the current system increasingly functions as a slow financial collapse: asset prices rise, but the purchasing power of ordinary households keeps eroding. Her broader point is that this is not a temporary distortion, but a structural feature of the fiat-based system. WATCH
21 in 21 Podcast: Michael Saylor on Bitcoin, AI, and Advice for Builders
A sharp and worthwhile listen for anyone thinking about where technology, money, and building are heading. Michael Saylor outlines that 2026 could mark a turning point for Bitcoin, AI, and the emergence of new bitcoin-based credit products. His broader point is that as AI reshapes the economy and autonomous agents become more relevant, Bitcoinâs role as digital capital may become even more important. WATCH
Dylan LeClair on Metaplanetâs Bitcoin Treasury Strategy
A useful and shorter watch for anyone following the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies. Dylan LeClair explains why Metaplanet stays focused on growing bitcoin per share through the cycle, how firms like Strategy and Metaplanet are using capital markets to accumulate more BTC, and why this model may become an increasingly important bridge between Bitcoin and traditional pools of capital. WATCH
Bankless Podcast: Michael Saylorâs Master Plan: âFix the Money, Fix the Worldâ
A worthwhile listen for anyone thinking about Bitcoin beyond the price target. Michael Saylor explores how Strategyâs capital stack is evolving, why instruments like STRC matter, and how he thinks about Bitcoinâs path from here. His broader point is that fixing money is ultimately about building a more durable financial foundation for the world. WATCH
The Ultimate Explanation of STRC + MSTR with Adam Livingston
One of the more accessible explanations of how Strategyâs capital structure actually works. Adam Livingston walks through MSTR and STRC, why the instruments are often misunderstood, and how Strategy uses equity, preferred stock, and its Bitcoin balance sheet to create different forms of exposure. A strong explainer for anyone who wants to understand the mechanics rather than just the controversy. WATCH
IDEAS OF INTEREST
SightBringer: The Psychology of Holding Winners â The hardest part isnât identifying a great investment, but holding it as it becomes large, volatile, and psychologically uncomfortable. Most investors sell not because the thesis breaks, but because their emotional capacity does. True outperformance comes from enduring that discomfort longer than others. READ
SightBringer: Truth, Power, and Organizational Failure â In large organizations, information degrades as it moves upward, turning decision-making into a distorted abstraction of reality. The real constraint is not structure, but whether leadership can handle unfiltered truth without relying on layers of protection. READ
Metaplanet: Japanâs Bitcoin Treasury Opportunity â With trillions in low-yield cash and a structurally conservative capital base, Japan offers unique conditions for Bitcoin treasury strategies. A company like Metaplanet may benefit disproportionately by bridging idle capital with Bitcoin-based yield structures. READ
Ragnar: The Emergence of Bitcoin Credit Markets â Surging volume in Strategyâs preferred shares ($STRC) signals how traditional capital markets are beginning to fund large-scale Bitcoin accumulation without equity dilution. This may mark the early stages of a âBitcoin credit layer,â where liquidity flows directly into BTC as a reserve asset. READ
Wall Street: Bitcoin Income Products Are Coming â Goldman Sachs and BlackRock are both moving to package Bitcoin into yield-oriented investment products, using structures such as bitcoin-linked ETPs and call-option strategies rather than simple spot exposure. The broader signal is clear: Bitcoin is being adapted to fit traditional investor demand. READ, READ
Morgan Stanley: Bitcoin ETF Gains Early Traction â Morgan Stanleyâs new spot Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, reportedly gathered more than $100 million in its first week, signalling rising institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure through familiar market structures. More broadly, it reflects Wall Streetâs growing shift toward treating Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. WATCH
If you want to support me, feel free. You can send me some satoshi/bitcoin.
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Resources
Quantum Expert Insight: Peter Shor WATCH
Micah Zimmerman â Bitcoin Developers Propose Bitcoin Quantum Migration Plan That Would Freeze Legacy Coins (BIP-361)Â READ
Bitcoin Policy Institute â Study: AI Models Overwhelmingly Prefer Bitcoin and Digital-Native Money Over Traditional Fiat READ
Bitcoin Magazine – AI Agents Are Already Using Bitcoin in a Bot-Run Economy | Bitcoin Policy Hour Ep. 27Â WATCH
Leon Wankum â Bitcoin and AI | The Bitcoin Newsletter #28Â READ
Leon Wankum â Bitcoin and AI | The Bitcoin Newsletter #28Â WATCH
Photo Credit:Â Raphael, The School of Athens, 1509â1511.
Disclaimer: the content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Make sure you do your own research before making any investment and be aware of your own risk tolerance. If you like to build on my thoughts, feel free, but please cite me as the source. 2026 – Leon Wankum.Â
Editing and content creation by Clemens Haidinger.Â
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